THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DECLARED THE WEEK OF JULY
20TH THROUGH 24TH, HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS IS THE FIFTH IN A SERIES OF FIVE PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAY, CONTAINING INFORMATION ON HURRICANES AND
HURRICANE SAFETY.
FRIDAY - THE FORECAST PROCESS--STATEMENTS, WATCHES, AND
WARNINGS
ONE PART OF THE MISSION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
(NWS) IS TO SAVE LIVES AND PROTECT PROPERTY BY ISSUING
WATCHES, WARNINGS, FORECASTS, STATEMENTS, AND OTHER
PERTINENT INFORMATION. THESE PRODUCTS ARE USED BY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSE PERSONNEL, BROADCAST
METEOROLOGISTS, AND THE PUBLIC.
DURING HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS, THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
ACROSS THE COUNTRY SHARE IN THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR
PROVIDING CRITICAL WEATHER INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC. TO
DO SO, THE HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCAL OFFICES CLOSELY
COORDINATE ON THE FORECAST, IN ORDER TO PROVIDE CONSISTENT
INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC. CONSEQUENTLY, THE NORMAL ZONE
FORECASTS MAY BE DELAYED DURING THESE SITUATIONS.
TO MAKE ACCURATE FORECASTS, FORECASTERS RELY ON A
COMBINATION OF OBSERVATIONS, ANALYSES, STATISTICS, AND
COMPUTER GENERATED GUIDANCE IN MAKING THEIR PREDICTIONS.
STANDARD OBSERVING EQUIPMENT SUCH AS SATELLITES, BUOYS, AND
LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS ARE ALL IMPORTANT IN LOCATING AND
TRACKING THE STORM. IN ADDITION, RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
FLY THROUGH THE STORMS TO TAKE AND COLLECT SPECIAL
OBSERVATIONS AND TO DROP SPECIALIZED INSTRUMENTS CALLED
DROPSONDES INTO THE STORMS TO GATHER ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. AS THESE STORMS APPROACH LAND, RADAR
OBSERVATIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT. QUALITY,
QUANTITY, AND TIMELINESS OF REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS ARE
CRITICAL FOR ACCURATE AND TIMELY FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.
ONCE THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN COLLECTED, THE DATA ARE
CHECKED FOR QUALITY, ANALYZED, AND USED AS THE STARTING
CONDITIONS FOR A VARIETY OF WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS START WITH THE OBSERVED
CONDITIONS AND PERFORM MILLIONS OF CALCULATIONS TO GENERATE
PREDICTIONS OF THE HURRICANE TRACK AND INTENSITY AND OF THE
GENERAL CONDITIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE STORM.
BOTH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCAL OFFICES
EVALUATE THESE COMPUTER PREDICTIONS, COORDINATE AND
COLLABORATE, AND DECIDE ON A CONSISTENT FORECAST TO BE
RELEASED TO THE MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC. ONCE THE
COORDINATION IS COMPLETE, BOTH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISSUING A VARIETY OF FORECAST, WATCH, AND
WARNING PRODUCTS TO THE PUBLIC.
LIKE ALL WEATHER-RELATED THREATS, THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RELIES ON A WATCH AND WARNING PROGRAM TO ALERT THE
PUBLIC TO THE POTENTIAL DANGERS FROM TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH/HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST WITHIN 48 HOURS. IF YOU HAVEN T DONE SO PRIOR TO THE
ISSUANCE OF THE WATCH, IT S A GOOD TIME TO BEGIN
PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL STORM, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
ACTIONS THAT REQUIRE EXTRA TIME.
A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ONCE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED, YOU
SHOULD COMPLETE ANY PREPARATORY ACTIONS AND GET TO A SAFE
LOCATION.
ONCE THE STORM ARRIVES, STAY IN THE SAFE LOCATION UNTIL THE
STORM HAS COMPLETELY PASSED. DON T BE FOOLED BY THE EYE OF
THE STORM, WHICH CAN MISLEAD PEOPLE INTO THINKING THAT THE
STORM IS OVER. WINDS AND RAIN WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EYE PASSES OVERHEAD.
WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUES HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST, THE
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ISSUING NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND ADVISORIES FOR
VARIOUS LOCAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OR PRECEDING THE
STORM, BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. THESE INCLUDE:
COASTAL FLOOD
INLAND TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
TORNADO
WHILE ISSUED SEPARATELY, THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE
GENERALLY SUMMARIZED BY EACH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS. IN ADDITION, EACH
LOCAL OFFICE ISSUES A VARIETY OF FORECASTS AND INFORMATION
STATEMENTS DURING HURRICANES OR TROPICAL STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUE NUMEROUS OTHER PRODUCTS THAT CAN BE
VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING AND ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THESE INCLUDE:
EXPERIMENTAL STORM SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS (ISSUED 4 TIMES DAILY FROM JUNE
1ST TO NOV. 30TH)
PUBLIC ADVISORIES (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS NEEDED)
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES (ISSUED EVERY 2 TO 3 HOURS
AS NEEDED)
FORECAST/ADVISORIES (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS NEEDED)
FORECAST DISCUSSIONS (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS NEEDED)
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY FORECASTS (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS
NEEDED)
QUESTION OF THE DAY: DURING WHICH MONTH ARE TROPICAL
STORMS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP?
WHILE THE FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL STORMS INCREASES IN JULY,
THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON RUNS
BETWEEN AUGUST 1 AND OCTOBER 31. ACCORDING TO THE
HISTORICAL RECORD FROM 1886 TO 1997, THE PEAK MONTH FOR
TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY IS SEPTEMBER. BELOW IS THE
PERCENTAGE OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN EACH MONTH.
MONTH PERCENTAGE OF STORMS
MAY 1%
JUNE 6%
JULY 8%
AUGUST 24%
SEPTEMBER 34%
OCTOBER 21%
NOVEMBER 5%
DECEMBER 1%
FACT FOR THE DAY: IN 2006, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGAN ISSUING PUBLIC FORECAST OF WIND PROBABILITIES FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. THESE NUMBERS ARE
GENERATED STATISTICALLY, AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
FORECASTING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE NUMBERS MAY SEEM
RATHER LOW, ESPECIALLY DAYS BEFORE LANDFALL. DON T BE
FOOLED BY THE LOW PROBABILITIES; EVEN THOUGH YOUR
PROBABILITY IS LOW, YOU MAY BE IN THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
BE HIT BY THE STORM.
HERE S A LIST OF TOPICS THAT WERE COVERED EARLIER THIS
WEEK:
MONDAY - TROPICAL CYCLONES, TROPICAL STORMS, AND
HURRICANES- THE BASICS
TUESDAY - HURRICANE WINDS AND TORNADOES
WEDNESDAY - STORM SURGE AND MARINE SAFETY
THURSDAY - INLAND FLOODING
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES AND HURRICANE
SAFETY, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER S WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
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